For the fourth time in five years it is predicted that a La Nina event is forming, which could mean a lot of rain for the Hilltops, according to the World Meteorological Organisation.
La Nina weather events bring with them above average rainfall, and over the past decade, usually indicate potential flooding for areas such as the Hilltops.
The Bureau of Meteorology dropped its individual drivers reporting in December 2024, retiring the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) dial, meaning the Bureau no longer issues La Nina watches or alerts, instead encouraging the public and media to follow their official forecasts, rather than gauging information from the dial.
According to the World Meteorologial Organisation there is the potential for a La Nina event to form in the coming months, but it is expected to be a short and less intense event.
In December the World Meteorological Organisation said its long range forecasts indicated a 55 percent likelihood of a transition from the current neutral conditions to La Nina conditions between December 2024 and February 2025.
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Over the past 12 months the local region has experienced La Nina, El Nina and neutral weather events, all of which have impacted season rainfall, temperature and weather patterns.
"The year 2024 started out with El Nino and is on track to be the hottest on record," WMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo said.
"Even if a La Nina event does emerge, its short term cooling impact will be insufficient to counterbalance the warming effect of record heat-trapping greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.
"Even in the absence of El Nino or La Nina conditions since May, we have witnessed an extraordinary series of extreme weather events, including record breaking rainfall and flooding which have unfortunately become the new norm in our changing climate."
According to the Bureau of Meteorology Southern Hemisphere Monitoring from the end of December 2024, since November, atmospheric inidicators such as the SOI and trade winds have strengthened towards La Nina with oceanic indicators responding 'in recent weeks'.
"Some oceanic and atmospheric patterns in the Pacific have at times shown weak La Nina characteristics in 2024 but with little coupling," a BoM spokesperson said.
"For an event to become established, both atmospheric and oceanic indices would need to be sustained at La Nina levels for at least three months."
The Bureau believes that though there will be an incline into La Nina in January, the forecast is expected to remain neutral.
"The Bureau's model forecasts that sea surface temperatures in the central tropical Pacific will remain in the ENSO-neutral range throughout the forecast period to April 2015, despite briefly dipping below the La Nina threshold in January," the BoM spokesperson said.
"This is consistent with four of the six other international climate models surveyed."
The BoM said the Indian Ocean Dipole and Southern Annular Mode will remain neutral through to April 2025.
Over the coming three months between January and March the Bureau of Meteorology has predicted there is a 75 percent chance that the Hilltops will receive above average rainfall and is predicted to record up to 200mm.
They have also predicted there will be a 75 percent chance that maximum temperatures for the Hilltops will be above the average over the three months to March and minimum temperatures have a 90 percent chance of being warmer than normal.
